ICE, Standard or LIT: choosing difficulty by conviction

Where they're available, a player stat can come at three difficulties. ICE gives you an easier line than the projection. Standard is the projection. LIT gives you a harder one.

The trade is simple enough to state in a sentence: an easier line contributes less to your lineup's potential reward, and a harder one can contribute more. What's less obvious is how to choose, because the tempting method — pick the one that pays best — is the one that loses money.

Difficulty should follow conviction

The useful question isn't "which pays more?" It's "where is my read strong enough to survive a worse number?"

If you think a player will clear a line comfortably, LIT asks whether "comfortably" means what you think it means. If you like the player but not the margin, ICE buys room at the cost of reward. If you have no particular view on the margin at all, Standard is the honest answer and there's nothing wrong with it.

What ICE actually buys

Room, not safety. ICE moves the line in your favour, which makes the pick easier to hit. It does not make it likely to hit. The player's actual performance still decides the outcome, and an easier line on a bad read is still a bad read — just a slightly cheaper one.

ICE is most defensible when you like the direction but distrust the margin: you're confident a player scores, less confident about how much.

What LIT actually costs

A harder number, in exchange for a bigger contribution to the lineup's multiplier. The cost is that you now need to be right by more. Taking LIT on a pick you only mildly like converts a thin edge into a thinner one and dresses it up as ambition.

LIT earns its place when the gap between your read and the line is wide enough that moving the number doesn't close it.

They score differently too

Difficulty doesn't only change the multiplier — it changes what a correct pick is worth when scores are compared:

So an ICE pick that hits still counts, just for less. This matters when your lineup is being ranked against a group rather than judged on its own.

You can mix them

A lineup doesn't have to use one difficulty throughout. Where the options exist, you can take LIT on the pick you're most sure of, ICE on the one you like least, and Standard on the rest. That's usually a better-shaped lineup than six picks all pushed to the same extreme.

The short version